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Advice: Know what you own

I have two investor hints. I’ve always said that one of the biggest mistakes investors make is that they don’t know what they own. I’m not saying that you need to know everything about what you own, but you need to have a general idea.

I have seen brokerage statements and I ask the investor, I’m testing them, “What is this?” Too many times the response is “I have no idea.”

If you would answer like that, I suggest you find out what it is you own.

My second hint is that I am getting some rumblings that investors could be flooded with alternative investment products in the coming months. These would be investment products with no track records.

I suggest you tread lightly here.

My first point that I mentioned above is really pertinent here. Know what you own. If a salesperson calls you with the “we have a great alternative investment for the bond market or stock market” you need to listen up.

I’m not saying they are not appropriate investments, I’m just telling you to be careful.

Most times these types of investments contain strategies that you are not used to. Common names might be long/short or market neutral. Just a heads up.

———

Here we are headed toward snow and Christmas. People hate it when I say that.

As we move into the last four months of this year we have not done badly. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see some sideways and/or down market action, particularly in September. I mean it has literally been almost straight up.

Year-to-date, measuring from Jan. 1 through August, the broad market as represented by the Wilshire 5000 index of most stocks traded is up over 17 percent after a crappy August of minus-2.79 percent. Your brokerage account statements are likely to reflect that as you look at the end of month numbers.

Still, up 17 percent is not a bad number.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 13 percent year to date, the Nasdaq is up 18.89, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is up over 14 percent, the Russell 2000 index of small stocks is up 19 percent and the S&P Midcap 400 is up over 16 percent.

This is one of those times when the smaller stocks and middle size are likely helping you if you own them.

———

Where you are not getting much help is the foreign markets which are up around 2 percent. The one really big exception is Japan where the market is up about 30 percent for the year.

In the U.S. what I see, which may or may not be accurate, is that the market was hit a little harder than minus-3 percent in August. It looks to me like the broad market could have been off between 4 and 5 percent.

Sometimes indexes don’t tell the whole story.

———

The bond market continues to be sloppy. Generally, bonds have been weak most of the year which means that prices are down and yields are up. I’ve actually been surprised that bonds have been and have remained as strong as they are.

Most of us thought that prices had to go down, but that has been slow in coming.

I don’t like losing money on bonds so that is OK with me. Many investors have moved to short-term paper, and I think that may continue.

If you buy certificates of deposit, the returns are still historically low.

Thirty year mortgages are about 4.6 percent so they are still affordable. The 15 year has moved up about 1 percent to 3.68 percent, still cheap though.

———

In commodities for the year to date, natural gas is up about 7 percent, crude oil is up over 11 percent, gold is down, minus-17 percent. Overall DJ-UBS commodity index is down, about minus-10 percent.

The dollar has been a little stronger against most currencies.

During August the price of corn, hogs, cattle and soybeans were up a little.

———

The wife sauntered into the Man Cave the other day to inquire into my activities.

“Now what are you thinking about?” she asked.

I told her that I was feeling kind of depressed that I did not have one of those fancy new smart phones that people wear strapped to their belt or purse. I told her that I thought I would just wear my garage door opener.

She yelled something like “Not when you are with me you #$%^&*%,” and ran away.

Didn’t think I was funny, I guess.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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