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Numbers surge in first half of 2013

I hope you have not missed some of this. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up over 18 percent measuring from Jan. 1 through the end of July. In 2012, the return was about 16 percent.

If you do the numbers, that is 34 percent in 19 months.

Now most of us did not earn that, but let’s just assume that you got half the move, that is 17 percent.

From the low in March 2009, the market has advanced 155 percent. Think of those people who sold back then and are looking at the market from the outside.

Again, most people do not get the whole move generally due to asset allocation, but I don’t know anyone who wouldn’t take a piece of that 155 percent.

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Just today someone asked me, “The S and P is at 1700, why?” The only thing that I can say, and it is just my opinion, is LIQUIDITY.

Cash, moolah, bread, bucks, clams, whatever you want to call it. When liquidity, cash in banks, money market funds, etc. is as high as it is, sometimes that money goes into the market.

I wouldn’t argue that it seems senseless at this point but that’s the way it is. Markets always go higher than you think and lower than you think.

The reality is that if this was easy then I wouldn’t have a job. Heaven forbid.

This is going to be fun to watch. Are we going higher or is the run over?

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As I’ve said, I read a lot. About half of the professional market gurus are bullish and half are bearish.

Having said that, that may not be bad. If 90 percent were bullish, then we probably should run for the hills. If it were 90 percent bears, then we might be backing up the trucks. We just don’t have any of that.

Normally there is unbridled enthusiasm at the top with cab drivers giving stock tips. We just do not have that.

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Let us look at the numbers.

We talked about the S and P, The Dow Jones industrial average is up 18.3 percent year-to-date. (YTD). The Nasdaq Composite is up 20.1 percent.

The Dow is around 15,500. When I got in this business it was around 500. You can see why I giggle a lot.

The Russell 2000 index of small company stocks is up 23.1 percent, and the S and P Midcap 400 is up 20.7. The Wilshire 5000, which represents most stocks traded, is up over 20 percent YTD.

Boys and girls, it doesn’t get much better.

The Investor’s Business Daily Mutual Fund Index is up over 19 percent so many money managers are doing well.

The foreign markets as represented by the DJ Global index, excluding the United States, is up 3.2 percent. If the foreign markets were doing well, I can’t even guess where our markets would be.

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Looking at the commodities market, gold is down -21 percent, crude oil is up 14 percent, natural gas is now up only 2.8 percent and has fallen about -22 percent from its high earlier this year. If they capped your Marcellus Shale gas well, you know why.

Copper prices have fallen. Silver is down; sugar is down but appears to be turning. Coffee should be on sale; prices are way down. Corn which is expected to have record yields this year is also down considerably, likewise soybeans. Cattle are just all over the place, and hogs are higher.

On the inflation front at this moment, we are not getting hurt.

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So what should we do? You don’t get a chance like this often. If you are unhappy with your adviser or money manager, for whatever reason, now is a good time to consider your options.

Prepare yourself long term to be ready for a bad market. If we are lucky, one does not show its ugly head for some time. We just don’t know.

Make sure that if the market goes down over 20 percent, which would not be considered unusual, and you lost 20 percent of your market value, you would be OK.

If not, then now is the time to do something.

———

I was back in the Man Cave earlier today when the wife came strolling in.

She looked at me and asked if there was something wrong.

I told her that I had missed going to the gym this morning and that made it five years in a row.

She didn’t think that was funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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