Over the years, Super Bowl Sunday has evolved into a borderline national holiday. Even the most casual football fans turn into prognosticators and offer an opinion as to how the game will play out.

This year, I’m finding it extremely difficult to predict with confidence which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy when the confetti flies at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Quite honestly, I think it’s a coin flip.

The New England Patriots have been far more consistent than the New York Giants this season, but consistency doesn’t mean Super Bowl success.

It’s only one game and one ill-timed miscue can be the difference between championship glory and an offseason to ponder what might have been — just ask the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.

I believe the Patriots are a better overall team, but they don’t match up well with New York.

The Giants spoiled New England’s bid for perfection in Super Bowl XLII four years ago, and more telling, New York claimed a 24-20 win over the Patriots in Week 9 this season.

In both wins, the Giants managed to slow down New England’s prolific passing attack and New York will need to do it again. The defensive front has proven it can put pressure on quarterback Tom Brady, which is key to disrupting the offense.

To make matters more difficult for the Patriots, Rob Gronkowski — who produced the greatest season in NFL history by a tight end — suffered a high ankle sprain during the AFC Championship and his status is questionable.

Wes Welker, who had nine catches for 136 yards in Week 9, is likely to have another big game Sunday. Aaron Hernandez is a young, up-and-coming tight end, but the Patriots don’t possess any other desirable receiving threats.

The Patriots rack up yards and move the chains with their short and mid-range aerial assault, but the Giants are more explosive.

New York was without standout wide receiver Hakeem Nicks in Week 9 and he could play a huge role on Sunday. Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham are also significant weapons at quarterback Eli Manning’s disposal.

New England’s defense has been dependable in the playoffs so far, but the Ravens and Denver Broncos didn’t present a challenge of the Giants’ caliber. Vince Wilfork has been a monster in the middle, though, and will give the New York offensive line plenty to worry about.

I expect this game to be decided in the fourth quarter and Brady has the distinction of being the most clutch quarterback in football. However, statistics say Manning has the advantage coming down the stretch.

When the Patriots were either winning or losing by seven points or less in the fourth quarter this season, Brady completed 55 of 83 passes for 694 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions.

Those are certainly solid numbers, but Manning’s are even better.

In the same situation, Manning went 61 of 98 for 939 yards with eight touchdowns and three picks.

In a game between two evenly matched teams, I’m going to pick the quarterback who has been more effective with the game on the line. Brady owns the reputation, but Manning has the numbers.

Giants 27, Patriots 23.

Jason Orfao is a staff writer for the Butler Eagle.