Mild growth likely
WASHINGTON — The economy likely expanded at a greater rate last quarter as Americans loosened a tight grip on their wallets. But the expected pickup in growth wasn't strong enough to make a noticeable dent in high unemployment.
Leading economists polled in a new AP Economy Survey predict the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2 percent in the July-September quarter. That would mark an improvement from the feeble 1.7 percent growth rate logged in April-June period. To knock down the unemployment rate, however, growth would need to be at least twice as fast as the 2 percent rate expected for the third quarter.
Looking ahead to the current quarter, economic growth isn't expected to be much better, logging just a 2.4 percent pace, according to the AP survey.
If that's that case, the economy will end 2010 on weaker footing than it started. In the first quarter, the economy expanded at a 3.7 percent pace.
"It's a half-speed economic rebound," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
One year after the recession ended, the economy has failed to generate the kind of growth needed to ratchet down unemployment and bring relief to the nearly 15 million Americans now out of work. The unemployment rate averaged 9.6 percent in the third quarter, down only a notch from the 9.7 percent average for the second quarter.
That's why the Federal Reserve is widely expected on Nov. 3 to announce a second round of government bond buying. The program will pump billions of dollars into the economy. Doing so will lower rates on mortgages and other loans. Anticipation of the Fed's action has already helped push down mortgage rates to their lowest levels in decades.
