Market recovery needs patience, caution
If you have started looking at your monthly investment statements again, hopefully you feel better.
July was a great month with you Dow fans up 8.5 percent, the Standard and Poor's 500 was up 7.4 percent and the Nasdaq Composite up 7.8 percent.
For the year-to-date 2009 through July 31, the Dow Jones industrial average is up 4.5 percent. The Standard and Poor's 500 is up 9.3 percent and the Nasdaq Composite is up a whopping 25.5 percent, which is reflective of the strong Tech stocks this year.
The Russell 2000 index of small stocks is up 11.4 percent, the S&P Midcap 400 is up 16.6 percent. Overall, my favorite index to compare is the Wilshire 5000, which measures most stocks traded, is up 12.5 percent.
It depends on your asset allocation and choice of investments as to how you have done.
The U.S. Treasury Bond markets are not giving us much help, if you buy yields. The five-year Treasury is yielding about 2.5 percent. Bond values appear to be on the corporate side.
The foreign markets, which really were bombed in 2008, have traded up this year with the Dow Jones Global Index up more than 24 percent through July.
As we look at some individual country returns, we can see why. China is up 87 percent, Israel and Brazil up 45 percent, Singapore and Taiwan up more than 50 percent and India up 62 percent.
China and India were really hurt in 2008, so I expected them to do well. Those markets are not for the faint of heart. The whole Asia/Pacific Rim was up about 22 percent.
Of note, Canada is up 20 percent through July as was Mexico. The United Kingdom was up only 3.9 percent as England continues to struggle.
We should look at commodities. Gold is up 7.9 percent, oil is up 55 percent and natural gas is down 35 percent for the year.
Corn has been weak; hogs are really down; coffee seems to have turned upward; sugar continues its bull market; soybeans, which had been weak, have blipped up a little; cattle is fairly stable; and copper continues to rise.
So what do I think? I think we should walk softly in here.
The S&P 500 has moved from its low of 666 in March to the end of July number of 987. That equates to a move of 48 percent.
Now, it can be argued the move was from panic selling price lows and really doesn't mean much. One thing for sure, there are billions and billions of dollars of cash sitting on the sidelines.
You and I know stock markets move in anticipation. Maybe this market is anticipating an economic recovery. Maybe all the money being printed is having an effect. What happens when we quit printing it?
Maybe there really is an economic turn coming.
Since most people like the Dow Jones Industrial because it is the most popular way of looking at the markets, let us take a look at where we are.
The Dow hit a high of 14,164.54 on Oct. 9, 2007. As of the end of July, we are at 9,171 which is 35 percent below the high.
This is why I hate this exercise. A nonclient called me the other day and asked: "When do you think I am going have as much money as I had at the high?"
I explained that from this point, with the Dow at 9,171 it has to run 54 percent to 14,000 and change, for us to be back at the former high. I think you should look at where you are now and where you might be in the future.
As an example, if by chance the Dow would be up 10 percent a year for the next three years compounded, that would put it at 12,206. I really think we ought to look at it like that.
I, of course, have no idea if that is going to happen, but it might not be such a bad thing just to get back to 12,000.
In my opinion, if the economy recovers quickly with all the cash on the sidelines, money could rush into the market and we could blow far past the old high. I just don't think you should bet the house on it even though it could happen.
Most of my clients want me to manage their money prudently with growth as an objective, but not the only objective. What that means is that if we get 70 percent or so of the growth going forward, that's called diversification with fixed income a part, then I suspect that most of my clients will be happy.
We like singles and doubles, and we are not concerned about the home runs.
You are going to love this. Many of us Americans believe oil-producing countries have really been gouging us. They don't like us, and they are just taking advantage of us.
Haven't you heard that? How about a dose of reality? Take a guess which country supplies the highest percentage of oil to us? How about our neighbors to the north, Canada.
Canada, according to an Energy Information Administration study, supplies us with about 20 percent of our oil imports. Three countries in Africa, Nigeria, Angola and Algeria, supply us with more than 17 percent of our imports. Saudi Arabia comes in at 15 percent.
Now, I don't know what you are going to do with this knowledge, but I am glad I was able to bring it to your attention. The Canadians like us.
If you have questions, you can contact me at howie.pentony@uvestfinancial.com.
Like many wives, mine told me the other day: "I would like it if you were more affectionate." I said, "Great, does that mean I can get a couple girlfriends?"
She doesn't think I'm funny.
Howie Pentony is a Butler financial adviser and a UVEST Financial Services member, FINRA/SIPC.
