Don't sit on sidelines for too long
I'm getting inquiries from all sorts of people wondering whether I think now is a good time to put some money into the market.
Some of these people sold at the lows in March, and some just have money to invest.
If you sold it, it is a difficult decision. Dan Sullivan writing in his "The Chartist" financial publication, says that "During the early stages of bull markets, many investors will remain on the sidelines.
"They have a preconceived idea of where the market will go and will cite any number of economic concerns as well as the warnings of CNBC pundits to support their bearish case."
However, "If history is any guide, the great majority of investors who were badly mauled during the bear market will not commit even a portion of their capital until it is much too late."
He quotes Marty Zweig in his book "Winning on Wall Street:" "As the bull market proceeds and the rally fails to give way to a major decline, many investors find themselves shut out. Slowly they begin to believe that the move might be for real, and the thinking is 'I'll buy on the next decline.' The problem is that the declines are never large enough to make people feel comfortable about buying."
He says that happens because there is so much money on the sidelines, which there is now, that small declines are used by that money to buy and therefore the declines may not be big enough to get the majority to buy.
Once in a while they will be right, but history is not on their side. Who knows what will happen here?
Walter Updegrave, writing in Money magazine, said that according to an Urban Institute study, if you hope to rebuild your battered nest egg, you should not abandon stock related investments, especially now.
Barbara Buterica, one of the study's authors, says, "If you pull out of stocks now, you would just be locking in your losses."
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If I asked you what the stock market has done since Oct. 10, 2008, what would you say? "How much have we lost?"
Are you ready for this? Measuring from Oct. 10, about 8 months ago, through June 30 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 4 points. Not 4 percent, but 4 points.
Let's take a look at what has transpired during the first six months of the year. Year to date measuring from Jan. 1 through June 30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 3.8 percent. The Standard and Poor's 500, which measures 500 stocks not just 30 like the Dow, is up 1.8 percent, and the Nasdaq has roared up more than 16 percent.
I like to look at the Wilshire 5000 since it measures most stocks traded. Year-to-date the Wilshire is up 5 percent. Hey, this is not bad.
What do I think? I'm like a coach. I think we may do better in the second half.
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People ask me about Bernie Madoff. How could something like that happen?
Let me tell you what I think. I think that if someone wants to get you, and that person is smart enough, you are in trouble.
Madoff is no different, other than the amount of money involved, than the bookkeeper who embezzles from his longtime employer. Almost every time that happens shock and dismay is expressed by everyone who knew the bookkeeper.
But, really, didn't any of these Madoff investors ever hear of "putting all your eggs in one basket"? I can just hear my clients if I called and said "Hey, I'm going to invest all your money in one stock."
What were they thinking?
Greed, greed is what they were thinking.
If you have questions for me, e-mail to Howie.Pentony@UVESTFINANCIAL.com or look on www.NexTierwealth.com.
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I love investment/economic humor. I thought that it kinda hit its peak last fall when someone put Iceland up for sale on eBay. Now that's funny.
I remember an incident a few years ago when I was the manager of a brokerage concern. My office was within hearing distance of the receptionist.
During a tough time in the market a client came in and told her that he had a check to deposit into his account. I knew him and I thought I would be cute so I yelled out to him that I was glad he was putting money into his account because we were not letting people take money out of their accounts this week.
He looked at me and said, "Howie, I don't have to take money out of my account. I just give it to you guys and it disappears all by itself."
He thought he was funny.
Howie Pentony is a Butler Financial Advisor, UVEST Financial Services; Member FINRA/SIPC.
