Super Spread ahead
Folks planning trips to Arizona for the Super Bowl might want to save the money. The title is likely to be decided in Indianapolis this week, making the game played on Feb. 3 an anticlimax.
Just assume the Colts or Patriots get there — and the winner of Sunday's game will have the primary tiebreaker for home-field advantage in the playoffs. Whoever they play, the point spread is likely to be the largest in Super Bowl history, unless the Cowboys represent the NFC. With anyone else, it will be huge, especially if the Patriots are AFC champions, and they have yet to win by less than 17 points.
But even if it's Dallas, the spread will be in double figures, close to the record of 19 points by which San Francisco was favored over San Diego in 1995. The 49ers won 49-26 in a game that really wasn't that close.
So what would be the matchups (or mismatchups) for the Patriots and Colts against the NFC teams that appear to have a shot in a wide-open and mediocre conference?
The one reservation, naturally, is one that's always there: injuries. Also consider that Pittsburgh and San Diego might have better shots at stopping the Colts and Patriots than any NFC team.
In any case ...• <B>Dallas (6-1) —</B> The Cowboys have been the NFC's best all season. And they led the Patriots 24-21 in the third quarter of their "Game of the Century" on Oct. 14 in Dallas.But no one who watched the game ever had the impression New England was going to lose. The Cowboys got only three points the rest of the way, Terrell Owens dropped a few passes and the Patriots confused Tony Romo enough to demonstrate he's not at the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning level yet.The 48-27 final wasn't totally representative — as has been his wont, Bill Belichick rubbed it in by scoring the final TD with 23 seconds left instead of taking a knee.If it's Indy, remember that Dallas is vulnerable in the secondary. Manning to Dallas Clark would happen all day against glorified linebacker Roy Williams at strong safety. Clark, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne could romp all day. Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton wouldn't get deep very often and strong safety Bob Sanders matches up well against tight end Jason Witten, the Cowboys' most reliable receiver.• <B>Green Bay (6-1) —</B> It would be a wonderful week for Brett Favre — until the game starts. Does anyone really think Ryan Grant or whomever could run against the Patriots or Colts as Grant did against Denver? No running game means Favre would be under constant pressure, whether from Rosevelt Colvin, Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour or from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Favre under pressure means interceptions.The Packers' defense is young and aggressive. Aaron Kampman is a wonderful DE and the Green Bay secondary is pretty good. Pretty good doesn't stop Brady or Manning.Other than Favre, Green Bay is young. Maybe next year or the year after, it would be formidable in a Super Bowl. Of course, Favre likely would be gone by then.• <B>New York Giants (6-2) —</B> The sideshow here, of course, would be a matchup with Indy that would turn the pregame into Manning Week. But other than that ...The Giants' strengths are their running game and pass rush. If they can control the clock a bit and put some pressure on Manning or Brady, they might keep the score down. But in a regular-season game last year, Manning kept getting the ball out just in time to convert third down after third down. Brady also gets rid of it quickly. Both would exploit an improved but still ordinary secondary.As for Eli, he's a turnover waiting to happen, especially against the Patriots.• <B>Seattle (4-3) —</B> Once again, likely to win the West by default. St. Louis is winless, San Francisco is too young and banged up, and the Cardinals are just banged up.This would be a 20-plus spread even though the Seahawks were in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and played a decent game against Pittsburgh they might have had a shot at winning if not for a couple of strange calls by the zebras.But this team is nowhere close to that one. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander are playing far below their 2005 level and the offensive line without Steve Hutchinson doesn't hold up.• <B>Carolina (4-3), Tampa Bay (4-4), New Orleans (3-4) —</B> One of these three will win the South. The Saints are the most likely. Drew Brees is back in form, clearly better than (help!) Vinny Testaverde or David Carr in Carolina. The Bucs? Too banged up and Jeff Garcia, age 37, seems to be wearing down without a running game.If the Saints somehow make it to Phoenix, Brees will be overwhelmed by pass rushers. If the AFC team is Indy, the speed of the defense neutralizes Reggie Bush. If it's New England, Bill Belichick's schemes do it.And either Manning or Brady can shred the New Orleans defense.
