PITTSBURGH — During the last eight years, the Pittsburgh Pirates' June drafts have become very predictable.

They will draft a pitcher, most likely from college. In the not-so-distant future, that pitcher will need reconstructive arm surgery.

All but two of the Pirates' first-round picks since 1999 have been pitchers, and five of the six pitchers have needed major surgery — including last year's first-rounder, former University of Houston right-hander Brad Lincoln, who recently had his elbow rebuilt.

Bryan Bullington, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2002 draft, cost the Pirates a $4 million-plus bonus but, to date, has pitched only one game in the majors.

Such a poor track record for keeping their valuable draft picks healthy might scare the Pirates away from taking another pitcher with the No. 4 pick on Thursday, but general manager Dave Littlefield said that isn't necessarily so.

"I sense that people expect you to say yes but, having experience in the draft for a lot of years, we all understand there is a greater risk with drafting pitchers," Littlefield said. "Whether they're high school pitchers or college pitchers, the rate at which pitchers get injured is much higher — potentially, there are more career threatening (injuries) than with position players."

The Pirates are proof of that.

First-rounders Bobby Bradley (1999), Sean Burnett (2000), John Van Benschoten (2001), Bullington and Lincoln all needed operations that set their careers back by years. Bradley never made it to the majors, and Burnett (5 wins) and Van Benschoten (1 win) combined for the only six major league victories by the five. Only Paul Maholm (2003) has avoided such an injury, but he is a combined 10-17 the last two seasons with Pittsburgh.

Burnett had a strong spring training, and was upset when the Pirates didn't keep him to start the season, but was shut down last week by Triple-A Indianapolis because of a left elbow problem. Van Benschoten hasn't pitched for the Pirates since 2004, and Bullington's only appearance was in 2005.

The Pirates chose a pitcher in the first round for six consecutive drafts from 1998-2003, then switched by taking hometown catcher Neil Walker in 2004 and Florida high school outfielder Andrew McCutchen in 2005. But they returned to picking pitchers last season, when they took Lincoln with the No. 4 pick and Troy State left-hander Michael Felix on the second round.