PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Penguins haven't done much wrong since the All-Star break. One of their few slip-ups may cost them any chance of having home-ice advantage in the playoffs.

The Penguins (45-24-11), nearing the end of the most surprising season in franchise history, have enjoyed a 43-point improvement since last season — the fifth-best turnaround in NHL history.

One more victory will give them the second highest-point total in franchise history, and more points than in either of the two seasons they won the Stanley Cup. It would be a remarkable accomplishment for a team that won only 22 games while finishing last in the Eastern Conference last season, also its fourth consecutive last-place finish in the Atlantic Division.

And talk about the March of the Penguins — they were 12-3-2 while playing 17 games in 31 days last month, ignoring the grueling pace to enjoy the best March in their history.

But these youthful Penguins' first late-season exposure to playoff-type hockey — a 4-1 loss Tuesday to Eastern Conference top-seeded Buffalo — was a major disappointment.

The loss, only the third for Pittsburgh in regulation in its last 13 games, and New Jersey's 2-1 shootout victory over Ottawa left the Penguins three points behind the Devils for the Atlantic Division title and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.

The only chance now for the Penguins to pass the Devils is to beat Ottawa tonight and the New York Rangers on Saturday, and for New Jersey to lose tonight at Philadelphia and at home Saturday against the New York Islanders.

Pittsburgh also trails Ottawa by one point, and two victories, for fourth place in the conference and home ice in a first-round No. 4 vs. No. 5 playoff matchup. Even if the Penguins win in Ottawa, the Senators can finish fourth by winning in Boston on Saturday.

If that happens, the Penguins may point to the Buffalo loss as being the reason they finished fifth rather than second in the conference — a major swing that might prevent them from having home ice in any round of the playoffs. Next week, it could mean they will return to Ottawa to start the playoffs rather than staying at home to begin play against the seventh-seeded team.

"We weren't ourselves," Jarkko Ruutu said. "The little things make the difference and they capitalized on those things."