Few bargains will be found in free agency
Edgerrin James left Indianapolis last spring and signed with Arizona, presumably a big blow to the Colts and a big lift for the Cardinals.
So Indy won the Super Bowl and Arizona finished at its normal 5-11. James averaged 3.4 yards a carry and rookie Joseph Addai combined with Dominic Rhodes to run for 1,722 yards for the Colts, 98 more than James and Rhodes had combined in 2005.
That's why despite the hype, free agency can be a tease. Good teams fill gaps with midlevel role players; bad ones try to make a splash with big names and fall flat.
It won't change when the signing period begins Friday. The best players have been re-signed or protected and a gaggle of good-but-not-great players are likely to be overpaid by teams desperate to fill holes.
Pending last minute signings or unexpected releases (Michael Strahan?), the best players on the market will include Baltimore linebacker Adalius Thomas and two Buffalo Bills: linebacker London Fletcher and cornerback Nate Clements.
"I don't think we're going for a, quote, 'mortgage the future,' type of thing," Buffalo general manager Marv Levy said in announcing that he would let Clements become a free agent. "That's the decision that was made."
The Bills are a bit unique and their reluctance to pay Clements — believed to be asking for about $18 million guaranteed — is a sign of the high revenue-low revenue split in the NFL. Buffalo is at the bottom of that divide and Levy says it would have to budget for Clements upfront money for one season instead of amortizing it over six years the way almost every one else will do.
Although Clements is a rare shutdown cornerback and the versatile Thomas can be an impact player in the right defense, neither will get a rebuilding team to the Super Bowl. The few who might already help do that are signed or have been protected as franchise players, including defensive end Dwight Freeney of the Colts and linebacker Lance Briggs of the Bears.
In the 14 years of free agency, few superstars have moved while in their prime.
In fact, the best was the first, the late Reggie White, who went from Philadelphia to Green Bay in 1993 when free agency began. He ended up helping the Packers win one Super Bowl and get to another.
The latest key signing was Drew Brees, not quite a superstar but certainly a franchise quarterback. He signed with New Orleans last year and led a team that had been 3-13 in 2005 to the NFC championship game.
The best QB available this year (barring trades) is 37-year-old Jeff Garcia, who led the Eagles to the playoffs when Donovan McNabb was hurt, but needs to play in a West Coast offense. The others are castoffs such as Aaron Brooks, let go after one year with the Raiders, and perhaps Drew Bledsoe, Joey Harrington or Patrick Ramsey, who are likely to be let go by their current clubs.
Then there are the players who fit systems, such as Cato June, the Indianapolis linebacker who is fine in Tony Dungy's scheme that emphasizes speed, but might not fit well somewhere else. Still, as a starter on a Super Bowl team, someone will find him attractive, especially in a year when most teams are well under the $109 million salary cap.
The best way to approach free agency is to look at teams that win consistently.
New England, which won Super Bowls in 2002, 2004 and 2005 and almost got there last season, has rarely signed big-name free agents. It got Corey Dillon in a trade; Rodney Harrison after he was cut by San Diego late in training camp; and its biggest signing, Rosevelt Colvin, took two years to become a starter, in part because of injury.
Nor have the Patriots been afraid to let big-name players go, from Lawyer Milloy through Willie McGinest to Deion Branch, who brought them a first-round draft pick in a trade to Seattle last season. But recognizing their secondary problems, they protected cornerback Asante Samuel with the franchise tag this year.
