With two weeks to kill after the NFL's conference championship games, the hype has been crazy.

There's only two teams to analyze, the Chicago Bears and the Indianapolis Colts, but some media outlets will still find a million angles, no matter how boring.

Every year its the same. The more time between games, the more time to overthink the outcome. Let's not do it this year. Let's keep this simple.

It all comes down to how the 2006 Bears and the 2006 Colts will fare in Miami on Feb. 4.

The Bears defense and special teams have been the team's strengths. The proof: 24 interceptions, 41Z\x sacks, 20 fumble recoveries and five special teams touchdowns.

And that's just during the regular season.

In the final four games of the season, though, the Bears surrendered 105 points, so cracks were showing.

On offense, they have weapons, but nothing spectacular. Thomas Jones rushed for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns and Cedric Benson added 647 yards and six scores.

Rex Grossman at quarterback? He's done surprisingly well in the playoffs. During the regular season, though, he completed just 54.6 percent of his passes for 23 TDs and 20 interceptions.

He has talented receivers in Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian and Desmond Clark, who had combined totals of 156 receptions, 2,264 yards and 17 TDs.

The Colts have Peyton Manning (65 percent completion, 4,397 yards, 31 TDs, 9 interceptions), with Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 1,366 yards, 12 TD), Reggie Wayne (86-1,310, nine TD) and tight end Dallas Clark (four TDs) among his top targets.

Rookie running back Joseph Addai rushed for 1,081 yards and seven scores, including the winning score in the AFC title game, and Dominic Rhodes contributed 641 yards and five scores.

The Colts run defense was in question entering the playoffs, especially after allowing Jacksonville to rush for 375 yards in a Dec. 10 matchup.

In three playoff games, Indianapolis limited Kansas City's Larry Johnson to 32 yards, Baltimore's Jamal Lewis to 53 yards and New England's Corey Dillon to 48 yards.

The key for the Colts is to surprise the Bears and jump out to a big lead. A couple of Manning touchdown passes will put the Bears defense on its heels and force the offense to come back from a big hole. Look for Clark to catch some passes down the middle to help open up the offense.

That would cause the Bears to abandon the running game and force Grossman to mount a comeback through the air.

That won't work.

The Bears will need to run the ball effectively to keep the Colts offense off the field.

This could be a close game, but my mind keeps jumping to the 1994 season, when San Francisco's Steve Young threw six touchdown passes against a very tough San Diego Chargers defense.

Young finally broke free of Joe Montana's shadow and secured his place in the Hall of Fame. That's what this game should do for Manning.

They say defense wins championships, but my gut says the Colts will overcome that and win decisively.

Colts 38, Bears 13.