Latest stock market records met with properly sober response
News that the Dow Jones industrial average has set two new record closes this week has been greeted with muted enthusiasm and mixed reviews. And that's an appropriate response for the current market.
Despite the DJIA closing at 11,850 yesterday, besting Tuesday's 11,727 close, which broke the previous high of 11,722 set on Jan. 14, 2000, the stock market's performance of the past six years is not a simple story of reclaiming lost ground and renewed prosperity.
Part of this market's mixed message is found in the fact that the industrial average is a group of just 30 large-company stocks, selected by the Dow Jones Co., and the different company stocks in the index receive different weightings in calculating the industrial average figure. It is a small group of stocks and not reflective of the broader market.
Despite this week's records, the 30 stocks in the DJIA benchmark have a total market value that is still below the total market value of the Dow index group when the record was set in 2000.
The significance of the new records by the Dow Jones industrial average is also colored by the performance of other stock market indexes, such as the broader S&P 500, which remains slightly below its high, set in March 2000.
And given the fact that the euphoria that drove the stock markets in 2000 was largely technology and Internet-driven, it's not surprising to learn that the tech-dominated Nasdaq still has to double its current level to set a new record.
So, it is appropriate that this week's milestones on Wall Street were met with calm analysis, rather that the "irrational exuberance" that former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan used to describe the market and investors'attitudes during the frenzy of the tech bubble.
The speculative euphoria of 2000 has been replaced by growth in some market sectors and continued softness in other areas.
The market factors that analysts say pushed the DJIA to this week's records include reduced fears of inflation and a softening of the energy markets, where the price of oil fell to below $60 a barrel for the first time in six months.
Some analysts describe current market conditions as a "Goldilocks" market, meaning it is growing at a moderate, sustainable level — not too fast and not too slowly.
This week's new record closes for the Dow Jones industrial average is a milestone, of sorts. New records, in fact, have been set, but investors understand the bigger picture and are not attaching too much significance to the record closes. That's a better reaction than the unrestrained enthusiasm for the market's earlier record close in 2000.
Despite the new Dow Jones industrial average records, the broader stock market is, by most measures, still well short of levels set in early 2000. But most investors also believe that today's market is on more solid ground, and that's a better foundation for long-term growth.
