Twin deficits rank with terrorism as top threats to U.S.
Images of the Twin Towers of New York's World Trade Center have come to represent the threat terror poses to the United States. Peter Peterson, the widely respected former Commerce Secretary in the Nixon Administration, is now suggesting that the twin deficits of the federal budget and international trade should be seen as equally serious threats to the United States.
These two financial threats are not as sexy or as easily worked into a political campaign as potential terrorist strikes, but Peterson argues they are just as threatening to the future of the United States.
Pointing to some of the same threats at Peterson, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan last week warned that Social Security and Medicare, two massive federal entitlement program, are a looming threat that deserve the immediate attention of elected leaders.
But neither President George W. Bush nor his Democrat challenger Sen. John Kerry is likely to talk about the real challenges facing Social Security and Medicare - or the unpleasant options seen as solutions. These two huge entitlement programs will be under great strain as the baby boomers retire, but past experience has shown that few politicians will talk about these problems - especially at election time - because the remedies are so politically unpopular.
Imagine Bush or Kerry campaigning on reducing benefits or increasing taxes to solidify Social Security or Medicare, or suggesting that the eligibility age should be set on a slow path to age 70, in recognition of the dramatic growth in life expectancy in the nearly 70 years since the program was created.
Long lives mean more people living more years and collecting Social Security longer. In 1960, there were 5.2 taxpaying workers supporting each retiree. In 2030, there will be just 2 workers supporting each retiree. At first glance, it appears benefits will have to be trimmed or taxes raised. There might be other options, including means testing and partial privatization, but doing nothing is not an option - despite most politicians' apparent preference for that option.
Peterson is critical of both parties in ignoring the dangers of twin deficits threatening America. He points out that Democrats generally promote and promise more entitlements while Republicans of late supported the expansion of Medicare to include drug benefits and the new benefit is predicted to grow to twice the accumulated national debt.
It could also be noted that the current Republican administration has reduced federal revenues by cutting taxes while at the same time boosting federal spending in many area, including a farm bill widely criticized for its wasteful, but politically popular, spending.
Peterson is calling for a bipartisan commission, similar to the 9/11 commission, to examine the threats posed by the twin deficits - the federal budget deficit and the trade deficit - and propose remedies. Only by taking it out of politics, Peterson argues, is there any chance of a serious discussion of this serious threat.
Similarly, Greenspan, largely because he served in an unelected position, has suggested benefits should be trimmed, the retirement age moved further, find ways to slow the growth of Medicare spending. The other option, which Greenspan does not favor because its negative impact on the national economy, is to continue to raise taxes to pay for these programs.
These serious problems are real, but they do not engage the public like issues of war, terrorism or partisan political bickering. Americans might not like what they hear, but a politician with the courage to address these issues is needed - and soon.
