NEW YORK - The baseball draft is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.

While the San Diego Padres were still deciding between a handful of players to take with the No. 1 pick Monday, other teams were scrambling to get their own draft lists set.

"We've tried not to read too much into what other people are doing," said Tampa Bay director of player personnel and scouting Cam Bonifay, whose team picks fourth.

"We're more concerned about our pick and how we line up the ability level of the players that are available to take."

The Padres narrowed their choice to three college players: Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, and right-handers Jered Weaver of Long Beach State and Jeff Niemann of Rice.

"We're fairly happy with all three," San Diego general manager Kevin Towers said. "It comes down to a choice between two starters, or do you want the position player?"

Baseball America reported Sunday night that the Padres might also be looking at California high school shortstop Matt Bush.

Towers prefers Drew, who would join brothers J.D. and Tim as the first trio of siblings drafted in the first round. Drew is hitting .353 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs for the Seminoles.

Towers said scouting director Bill Gayton will make the final decision. This is the fifth time the Padres have had the No. 1 pick, and first since they took right-hander Andy Benes in 1988.

Weaver, the brother of Dodgers pitcher Jeff Weaver, was generally considered the choice for the top pick through most of his dominant season. But the Padres threw a curve at the draft prognosticators a few weeks ago, saying it was more than just a one-man race.

Scott Boras is representing Weaver, and a big factor for teams is being able to meet contract bonus demands.

"For me, the weakness always is not knowing the signability," said Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin, whose team has the fifth pick. "Sometimes, you get a different opinion from the kid after the draft."

Weaver is 15-1 with a 1.65 ERA for the 49ers, and has struck out 201 - just the 15th Division I player to reach that mark. He also has walked just 19 in 136 1-3 innings.

"All signs say this guy should have a lot of success in professional baseball," Towers said. "He's not going to spend a lot of time in the minors."

Niemann, Rice's 6-foot-9 ace, went 17-0 last season for the College World Series champs. He struggled through groin problems this year before coming on late.

Owls right-handers Philip Humber and Wade Townsend are expected to join Niemann as first-round picks, making Rice the first college to have three pitchers selected in the draft's opening round.

"The strength this year is in the pitching," New York Mets scouting director Gary LaRocque said. "Every year presents something a little bit different, and I think this year the pitching really stands out as having more depth."

Other players expected to be top picks include: Texas high school right-hander Homer Bailey, Georgia high school shortstop Chris Nelson, Vanderbilt lefty Jeremy Sowers, Texas closer Huston Street, Princeton outfielder B.J. Szymanski and Old Dominion right-hander Justin Verlander.

"The general consensus is there's some good pitching, not the quality of the year when Josh Beckett, Barry Zito and Ben Sheets all came out (1999), but some depth," Melvin said. "Again, though, you never know until years down the road."

Detroit has the second pick, followed by the Mets, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Colorado and Texas round out the first 10 picks.

Minnesota has three first-round selections. Houston, Boston, the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco and Atlanta don't pick until the second round, while Seattle has to wait until the third round.

Tampa Bay selected high school outfielder Delmon Young with last year's No. 1 pick.

"Last year, I think if you talked to most of the scouting directors, Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks probably were at the top of their list," Bonifay said. "This year, there seems to be more varied opinion on a lot of players with fine ability."

The draft, which lasts 50 rounds and could run through Wednesday, is conducted by conference call.