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It takes courage to remain in volatile market

This has not been pretty.

Most investors that I talk to are a little weary of a 700 point up day on the Dow Jones industrial average followed by a 700 point down day. It seems more downs than ups and I think that is true.

As we look at 2018 stock market returns were all over the place. The Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index of the 500 largest companies by stock value was down about 6.2 percent.

I try to use the raw averages without dividends. Most everyone has expenses so we’ll use those dividends for expenses.

The Russell 2000 index lost about 11 percent, the Mid-Cap index lost about 13 percent, and the EAFE index of Foreign Stocks was down almost 14 percent.

There were not many places to hide. The bond market did not help us as it was about breakeven.

If you had a diversified portfolio, and this is my opinion, it would not have been unusual if you lost 7 percent or 8 percent or even more. One day we are up about 10 percent for the year and then we lost about 19 percent from the high.

December was a horror story. The S&P was down 9 percent and the Dow was down 8.7 percent.

We don’t pay much attention to the Dow anymore as it is only 25 stocks. It still is the most recognizable average when the pundits talk about “The Market.”

It’s almost silly for me to talk about numbers, except for the 2018 results, because with the volatility the numbers change quickly.

As I write this on Wednesday, I can tell you one thing but by the time you read this over the weekend who knows?

I tell my wife that if I were the King clients would only be allowed to look at their statements one time a year, Jan. 1. She says that is why I am not the King.

Just think how much happier you would be if you didn’t look every day. You wouldn’t know anything about the daily fluctuations!

Investors who look at their portfolio every day are constantly disappointed. One day they look and the portfolio is up, and the next day it is down.

Why does anyone want to do that?

Many investors tell me that they look once a month, “Do I have more money this month than last?”

I call that the bottom line.

If you are going to hire someone to manage your money, give them the money, put the total you gave them under a magnet on the refrigerator, and occasionally compare the numbers. You need to pay attention but be reasonable. (You’ll be happier.)

As I have said many times, to be an investor you much have courage.

It’s the paper losses which get most investors. “Oh my, I’ve lost $30,000 so I need to sell.”

The truth of the matter is that if you bought the Dow around the year 1900 and did not sell — key words “Did not sell”— historically it has been impossible to lose money.

The problem has been fear. Legendary investor Warren Buffett says he likes to buy when everyone is fearful.

Let us look at some facts about investing. These numbers come from my Friends at MFS.

The S&P has gained an average of 9.8 percent per year over the last 50 years! The S&P has posted positive total returns 14 of the last 16 years! The bond market was up 0.01 percent in 2018 but has returned about 5 percent per year total return over the last 25 years!

I feel bad that some people are just not investors.

Some people are concerned that this time period is similar to 2007-09. Balderdash! Back then we had a banking crisis.

In 2009, 140 banks failed. Not one bank failed in 2018. Not one.

It seems to me that the banking industry is healthy. It appears that this administration has led the way with new jobs and a GDP that is the envy of the world. President Trump, love him or hate him, but the numbers do not lie.

My spouse came into the Man Cave the other day and asked me to get the coffee ready for the morning. I told her that I did not think that was my job. She told me it was in the Bible. I asked here where in the Bible. She said it’s everywhere, Hebrews, Hebrews, Hebrews. I don’t think she’s funny.

Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.

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