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Big move down by tech stocks no real surprise

As I write this Thursday, the market has lost about 6 percent.

This should not be any surprise to anyone.

A few of the high-flying tech stocks have been leading the market higher without much participation. Most of us have thought there would be a big correction in these stocks, we just did not know when.

As I have said before, this stock market has been incredibly strong.

We would get bad news; the market would fall a little and then rally back. This has been going on for months.

I’m actually surprised that it has taken this long. Most of us are.

I was watching one of these high-flyers and it went from $1,400 a share in April to $2,000 just a few days ago. Boys and girls, that is about a 40 percent gain.

Any serious market person knew that those types of moves are generally not sustainable and probably was going to involve some sort of correction.

By the time you read this over the weekend, it will not surprise me if the correction isn’t deeper.

I mean a 10 percent correction has been kind of normal the past months. I am not poo-pooing it, I’m just saying it has been long overdue in my view.

One of the things I think the market is thinking is that some months down the road the economy and corporate profits are not going to be as good as they are now. It is going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.

When something like this happens, I just have to throw all the notes away on what I was going to write about — brilliant observations and that sort of thing. I know you will be long-suffering but there is not much I can do about it.

So, let’s talk about the non-stock market related investments called commodities. Most of the time I don’t consider commodities investments but there are exceptions.

The numbers I use here are year to date. Last time I looked, gold was down about 9 percent for the year to $1,189 per ounce. It hit $1,905 per ounce in 2011 and is now down some 38 percent from that high. If you have been holding it as an investment you are down about a third.

Crude oil, another commodity, is up about 25 percent for the year. Don’t quote me on that because it has been all over the place. Many believe that it is headed to $100 a barrel. It is now about $70, so it has a way to go.

Natural gas is up about 12 percent, gasoline 11 percent, and the dollar about 4 percent. Some think the dollar will be stronger but we will just have to wait and see.

How about stuff we eat? Oats is up 11 percent, cocoa 8 percent, wheat 5 percent, live cattle about 1 percent, canola and orange juice less than 1 percent. On the down in cost side includes soybeans down 12 percent, corn down 4 percent, hogs down almost 15 percent and coffee down 17 percent.

By the way, Bitcoin futures are down about 20 percent.

In things we don’t eat, copper is down 17 percent and lumber is down almost 19 percent.

I think I am done talking.

My advice: know what you own and own quality.

My wife was in the Man Cave the other day and I told her that my friend Louie is upset. His wife told him that he does not look so good in the new glasses. Louie told her that he didn’t wear glasses. She said “No but I do.” Now my wife thought that was funny.

Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.

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