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Fear and loathing and money in Pennsylvania

The special election in the 18th congressional District of Pennsylvania this week will have mirror opposite effects on the two parties.

Democrats, enthused by victory in a district that voted for Donald Trump by almost 20 points in 2016, will contribute more money and time to Democratic candidates.

For Republicans, the results in Pennsylvania are unspinnable: Democrat Conor Lamb improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance in the district among both non-college-educated whites and more affluent suburban whites. Republicans, carrying the weight of Trump’s unfitness, tried multiple messages. “It means that nothing is working for them — not the tax bill, not tariffs, not Trump rallying his so-called base, and not their attacks on Pelosi,” said Democratic pollster Geoff Garin.

According to Bloomberg Government, $17.5 million had been spent in the district by election eve. The Democrat Lamb out-raised the Republican Rick Saccone among individual campaign donors by around 4-to-1 — a measure of Democratic intensity. Republicans countered by spending more than $10 million via outside groups, including the National Rifle Association, for a 10-to-1 advantage in independent spending.

Not all spending is equal, however. On television, candidates are given the lowest rate for advertising. Outside groups are not.

Consequently, at least on television, Lamb’s money bought more than the money provided by Republican groups. That imbalance seems likely to play out in multiple districts this fall, with Democrats drawing more funds from small donors and Republicans relying more on interest groups.

When money flows freely, campaigns avoid difficult either-or tactical decisions. Instead, they opt for all of the above. “It gets to be overkill at some point,” emailed pollster Paul Maslin, who advised the amply funded 2017 campaign of Democratic Senator Doug Jones of Alabama.

Jones spent more than $20 million last fall in his special election victory over Republican Roy Moore. The previous three Democratic Senate nominees for that seat, who had no hope of victory, spent $4,500 (2014), $333,000 (2008) and $1 million (2002).

Crazy money is indicative of crazy stakes. Plutocrats, such as the Koch brothers, will spend to maintain the enormous advantages they have derived from pliant politicians. Democrats who fear and despise Trump (and don’t much like the Kochs) will spend generously to defeat them. One question raised by Lamb’s success is whether corporate funders, who just benefited from an enormous GOP tax cut, will begin to hedge their 2018 bets by spreading money to more House Democratic candidates.

This week, as the Pennsylvania House election was coming to a close, the Republican Saccone said that Democrats were energized by “hatred” for Trump, God and America. He was wrong on two out of three, but his comment captured the visceral quality of discord in 2018. Fear and loathing should lead to record fundraising.

Francis Wilkinson writes editorials on politics and U.S. domestic policy for Bloomberg View.

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