DALLAS — OPEC’s decision to cut production gave an immediate boost to oil prices, but the impact on consumers and the U.S. economy is likely to be more modest and gradual.

The cartel agreed Wednesday to cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day, reversing a strategy that produced lower oil prices and pain for U.S. drillers but saved money for consumers.

Even if OPEC members carry through on their promises, global oil production would only fall by about 1 percent. There is still more supply than demand — the reason oil prices collapsed beginning in mid-2014.

The price of oil shot up 9 percent to near $50 a barrel. If the price keeps rising, some of the slack from OPEC cuts will be picked up by producers in the United States — good news for drillers and oilfield workers in Texas and North Dakota. Donald Trump has vowed to increase drilling in the U.S., the world’s third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia.

In short, analysts say, consumers and businesses are not likely to see the return of $100-a-barrel oil — and the high energy costs that came with it — anytime soon.

Still, there could be some short-term shocks even before OPEC’s cuts take effect in January.

“The average Joe filling up his tank may notice in the next week or two that gas prices move higher by 5 to 15 cents a gallon just on the psyche of the deal,” said Patrick DeHaan, an analyst for GasBuddy, a site used to comparison-shop for gasoline.

The U.S. Energy Department predicts that heating oil costs will rise about one-third this winter, but that prediction was issued more than a month ago and was based heavily on forecasts of much colder temperatures in the Northeast.