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Should Punxsutawney Phil choose our next president?

TAH

Only in America can we go to bed watching Iowans pick a president and awaken next morning to find out that Pennsylvania’s most famous rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, has predicted an early spring.

Sillier yet is the reality that both methods are notoriously bad prognosticators.

In Iowa, only six electoral delegates are on the line. A presidential nominee needs 270 electoral votes to lock up the presidency. But Iowa’s six delegates carry a disproportionate importance. The Iowa caucuses represent the first poll that carries any lasting significance.

So it was a bit of a letdown when Monday night’s Democratic caucuses finished too close to call. Unofficially, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders each won 50 percent of the Democratic vote.

Clinton and Sanders spent a combined $16.4 million in advertising, and they left Iowa in a dead heat.

While some state primaries feature a winner-take-all format, Iowa does not, which means Clinton and Sanders garner a nearly identical number of delegates for the Democratic National Convention.

Apparently $16.4 million doesn’t get you much these days in a presidential campaign.

And the Republicans far outspent the Democrats.

Marco Rubio and the super PACs supporting his campaign spent $12 million toward his third-place GOP finish behind Ted Cruz, who spent $6 million, and Donald Trump who spent $3.2 million.

Jeb Bush was the top spender with $15 million — which won him just 5,235 GOP votes. That translates to $2,865 per vote. It also translates to a fifth-place finish and one delegate for the GOP national convention.

Since 1972, when it became the nation’s first presidential contest, Iowa has an accuracy rate of 50 percent for choosing the Republican nominee and 43 percent for the Democratic nominee.

That’s a slightly better accuracy rate than Punxsutawney Phil. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, N.C., Phil’s forecast has been right 13 times and wrong 15 times since 1988.

Another perspective is that a coin toss could more accurately predict either outcome — and for far less than the combined $70 million spent in the Iowa campaigns.

Then again, while Phil has only two options — early spring or six more weeks of winter — the people of Iowa gave us Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012 and, four years earlier, Mike Huckabee.

Today, Iowa and Punxsutawney both are getting back to normal. Gobbler’s Knob falls silent again and the groundhog goes back to his cozy home at the public library.

The national media mob and campaign workers have left Ames, Davenport and Des Moines for their next primary toss-up, which is next week in New Hampshire.

The prognostications have begun in earnest. And whatever the weather, we have seven more months of crazy campaigning ahead of us.

Only in America.

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